Disclaimer: This post is not cleaned up thoroughly. It is my attempt to take all the failed cases from this essay and assort them here into different patterns so I can work on them:

example not matching subject

no example

beliefs about right or wrong (24 practiced)

(Crime)[0] should (not pay)[1], is (very simple common sense)[2].

Claims: Crime should not pay

Definition: checks out I think!

This is a predicate based on his beliefs about what is right and wrong, not on empirical examples. “Crime does not pay” is a predicate about the world and it would be false if the average crime led to a lot of money without imprisonment. “Crime should not pay” can be skipped for now. (“The Holy B says that crime should not pay” is testable, though.)

Pattern: “is common sense”

pattern

X prefers A to B

Many prisoners prefer to do jobs, instead of having to sit in their cells all day

It took me time to realize that this doesn’t have an example in the video I was watching

how to: find pattern and guess within 3 mins if it has example or not.

context dependent

Claims: crime does not pay

Didn’t know how the example would look keeping the definition in mind

how to: A does not B

Self claims

(Marriage)[1] is (a social construct where a man marries a woman(/man))[2]. (In countries like India)[3] it is (the norm)[4], whereas in (European countries)[5] we do have (couples who do not marry for a long time)[6] and (have kids even.)[7]

Claims: [1] is [2].

Subject: [1].

Predicate: is [2].

Example: -

Definition: I don’t understand this “social construct” and am unable to give example and compare, as a result.

Checklist: not-sure; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; no-example; failed (Failed to give example for my own claim).

pattern: my own claims

Claims: It is not [11] to get [12].

Subject: Spending huge amounts of money and time and effort on me.

Predicate: is worth for parents despite kids not listening to them.

Example: I don’t have examples for this, mainly because of the label “worth for parents”. I don’t understand what it could stand for.

Definition: -

Checklist: yes; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; self-claim-with-0-ex; failed; definition-unclear;

Pattern: vague predicates(like “worth it” etc…) with own claims.

What it should have been:

Example: My parents will waive 46000 euros of my tuition off if and only if I get married. i.e., only if I listen to them.

checks out!

As the (movies)[1] portray (it might be great to have kids)[2], but I have seen (kids)[3] first hand. Its a (lot of work)[4], its a (lot of time investment)[5]. When there are so (many important problems to solve in this world)[6], why unnecessarily (bring more problems for you)[7].

Claims: When there is [6], [7] is unnecessary.

Subject: If [6], then [7]

Predicate: is unnecessary.

Example: I don’t have an example

Definition: -

Checklist: yes; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; self-claim-with-0-ex; failed; no-example;

Spending time on other things will leave you with less time for this? Give one example of a top problem to be solved in the world and how your addition of problems say by bringing kids into the world is going to stop you. Atleast you don’t have an example. That is clear. Which is definitely sad.

For example, instead of spending 40000 Euros on your kids, you could use it to save ‘I don’t know how many fucking lives’. Period. Did you know (primary schools)[8] cost (2 to 3k Euros in India)[9]? Why would I unnecessarily- having seen (a lot of parents in my life)[10]- get myself into (this bullshit)[11]. I have (no interest)[12] in (starting a family)[13]. I have (my parents, my brother and a whole lot of friends and cousins)[14]. These many people (are good)[15]. Here me out loud, I am not opposed to the concept of girlfriend, but (marriage)[16], and (making a life long commitment)[17], so that the (girl feels secure with half of your earnings at divorce)[18], Sorry! Not my cup of milk!

Claims: [10], struggle with their kids

Subject: What [10] do.

Predicate: Struggle with their children.

Example: Whenever I see my cousin at a marriage she would be on the tail of her two kids. She needs people to be behind them all the time. This is the case with all my cousins.

Definition: checks out!

Checklist: yes; true; none; not-chapter; not-running; none ; self-claim-with-0-ex; failed; time

I spent quite some time, wondering why I hated kids so much. Not one repulsive example came to my mind

The definition is unclear but that is because I don’t remember what I wanted to say. It is an argument I make to avoid kids in my life. I keep saying kids are a pain but that’s just too broad I guess. I remember an STM also saying make smaller claims that you can test right now. Changing a diaper sucks? dealing with fighting children sucks? or not being able to do anything else in your life sucks

Claims: I have [12] in [13].

Subject: What I have.

Predicate: [12] in [13].

Example: Don’t think I can give an example for this.

Definition: -

Checklist: no; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; self-claim-with-0-ex; failed; time

What I am thinking in my mind is when will “no interest” be satisfied! That is what I am unsure of.

What is should have been:

Example: I told my parents I am not going to get married and to stop looking for a bride for me.

Definition: checks out as this shows the lack of interest in starting a family.

More than this I dont see the point of dealing with this claim.

Claims: I have [14] and that is good enough.

Subject: Having [14].

Predicate: is good enough.

Example: Don’t have an example for it.

Definition: -

Checklist: no; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; definition-unclear; failed ; self-claim-with-0-ex; failed

Pattern: X is good enough

If you really have not a (better thing to do in life)[1] and choose to (“settle down” and marry)[2], good luck bruv.

Claims: It’s a bad idea to [2], because you have not anything [1].

Subject: The result, if you marry because you have not any [1]

Predicate: is a bad idea.

Example: This should have an example I think, but I don’t have one.

Definition: -

Checklist: yes; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; self-claim-with-0-ex; failed

Pattern: self claims

You don’t have any problems when you are at 35 now. But suddenly because you are married, you already have shit loads of problems at 35. For me if I loose my job, I pretty much don’t care. I will go back to India, stay with my parents, try to find something that works for me. But if I am married, I better be worried sick every second of my life that that doesn’t happen.

Claims: Compared to a married men at 35, unmarried men at 35, have much less problems at 35.

Subject: Problems married men at 35 have compared to unmarried men at 35.

Predicate: is much less

Example: I have 0 examples.

Definition: -

Checklist: yes; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; self-claim-with-0-ex; failed;

Pattern: self-claims

no idea if has example or not

Claims: crime does not pay

Checklist: yes; false; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; no-example; unsure;

Pattern: A does not B?; crime?; pay?

“Crime does not pay” is a predicate about the world and it would be false if the average crime led to a lot of money without imprisonment.

Claims of the future (27 practiced)

You can’t proove something of the future but you can show examples of confidence for something of the future based on past (aka human civilization is at risk due to diseases)

future that have examples:

There are (many issues)[1] we haven’t been able to look into yet, so we expect there are other (high-impact areas we haven’t listed)[3].

STM: What made them expect that there are other areas left? If I don’t like plain Parle G biscuits even after trying many times, I won’t say that “I expect there are other tasty, plain Parle G biscuits that we haven’t listed”.

Perhaps they’ve seen an average of 3 out of 10 areas to be promising, so based on that they expect that maybe 3 out of the remaining 10 would also be good. Or maybe not 3, but at least 1 or 2.

If they had tried a hundred areas and found zero promising ones, they would not expect too many promising areas in the future.

Claims: There are other [3] we have not looked into.

How to: Find future statements and practice like a nigger

future that does not have examples

Claim: [3] is at stake (because of AI).

Example:

The fate of Gorillas currently depends on the actions of humans. They are currently endangered. Similarly the fate of humanity may come to depend on the actions of machines than our own.

In other words, we have no concrete example. If they said that diseases put human civilization at stake, we can point to the Black Plague, which killed nearly half the people of Western Europe. Or nukes (Japan). Or asteroids (dinosaurs).

Pattern: Future is at stake types subject talks about the future

I see that (my mind)[8] has already been (made up)[9], primarily for the reasons, that (I)[10] have (other important things to focus on)[11] and I am not ready to invest in something that is (going to bring my goal down)[12]. For me it is very important (to make lots of money)[13], and (focus on my career)[14]. What ever I need (to do for that)[15], I am (ready to do)[16].

Claims: [8], regarding marriage, is already [9]
aka “I am not going to marry ever”.

Subject: [8], regarding marriage

Predicate: is already [9].

Example: Not possible to come up with example for the future!

Definition: -

Checklist: no; false; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; no-example; almost-failed

Pattern: claims about the future

IF / missed comparison

if with missed comparison

(These areas)[6a] can be (particularly worth pursuing)[7] if you’re (especially motivated by one of them)[8].

Your response:

For [6a] we think of, working in promoting EA as in the above example.

For [8], we think of a personal fit of more than 50%

For [7], we think of an impact of 5300*50%=2650 lives which is better than working a DS job resulting in 530 net people.

But that doesn’t use [8] at all. Why is it particularly worth pursuing if you are “especially motivated”? The “impact” [7] you pointed out would seem to be the same if you had [8] or if you didn’t.

I would expect an example where someone who had this magical [8] went on to have particularly great “impact”. And I suspect that they do not have that example.

Consider this: You can bowl a particularly high bouncer if you’re 6 feet tall. Showing Bhuvaneshwar Kumar bowling a bouncer is not an example. You have to show Courtney Walsh bowling a bouncer that is one foot higher than usual bouncers.

how to: find if statements and practice like a nigger.

Given

Given our take on (the world’s most pressing problems)[1] and the (most pressing bottlenecks these issues face)[2], we think the following (five broad categories of career)[3] are a good place to (start generating ideas)[4] if (you have the flexibility to consider a new career path)[5].

Claim: Given [1] and [2], it appears that following [3] is a good place for [4].

Question: Is following [3], a good place for [4]?

I am not sure how to give an example “Given [1] and [2]”?

Another sentence: “Given that we want batsmen who are short and have curly hair, here are the batsmen we found: Sachin Tendulkar, …”

So, if you sorted the table of “all careers” using the fields “how pressing is this problem?” and “how pressing is the bottleneck they’re focusing on?”, then the five top careers are …

Giving an example of Jacques Kallis would be wrong because he isn’t short and doesn’t have curly hair. Ricky Ponting would be wrong because he doesn’t have curly hair.

how to:

hidden comparison

because-should-due-to

All causation type statements using because, due-to, do not have examples. But we can try to give examples for statements where the “because part” is removed.

For example, instead of spending 40000 Euros on your kids, you could use it to save ‘I don’t know how many fucking lives’. Period. Did you know (primary schools)[8] cost (2 to 3k Euros in India)[9]? Why would I unnecessarily- having seen (a lot of parents in my life)[10]- get myself into (this bullshit)[11]. I have (no interest)[12] in (starting a family)[13]. I have (my parents, my brother and a whole lot of friends and cousins)[14]. These many people (are good)[15]. Here me out loud, I am not opposed to the concept of girlfriend, but (marriage)[16], and (making a life long commitment)[17], so that the (girl feels secure with half of your earnings at divorce)[18], Sorry! Not my cup of milk!

Claims: I am opposed to 16, 17 because of 18.

Becomes–>

Claims: I am opposed to 16,17.

Claims: I am opposed to 16, 17.

Subject: what I do.

Predicate: is opposed to 16 and 17.

Example: I tell my parents that I don’t want to get married

Definition: checks out!

Checklist: yes; true; none; not-chapter; not-running; none;

with examples

(Average (pay is 0.63 $))[1], that means there are (states where Prisoners make considerable less )[2]

Claims: [1] means [2] exists.

Hard to establish causality of [1] meaning [2].

Checklist: yes; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; because-should-due-to; failed

Pattern: that means

Do not need to establish causality, but just show an example where Average pay is [1], and [2] is also true.

with no examples

Claims: I am opposed to 16,17 so that 18.

Subject: What I do.

Predicate: is opposed to 16, so as to 18.

Example: I don’t have an example. And I am not sure if I can give an example

Definition:

Checklist: not-sure; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; if; because-should-due-to; failed; (failed to recognize it)

Pattern: ABC so that Z.

should

Claims: Federal Government should have stepped in to reduce the delay in desegregation.

Checklist: no; neither; because-should-due-to ; time;

Failure-mode: time

pattern: “should” in the text.

“Crime should not pay” can be skipped for now. (“The Holy B says that crime should not pay” is testable, though.)

When X you end up with Y

When (you put all of this together)[1] you wind up with a scenario where (you’re not just hurting the people who are incarcerated)[2], (you’re hurting everyone around them)[3].

Claims: When [1], you wind up with [2].

Subject: Consequences of [1].

Predicate: is [2].

Example: One in three families reported going into debt to pay for phone calls or visitation.

https://ellabakercenter.org/sites/default/files/downloads/who-pays.pdf

Definition: checks out.

Checklist: yes; true; none; chapter; not-running; if; example-matching-definition; unsure; because-should-due-to; didn’t-recognize

Pattern: When X you end up with Y

Plan is to skip this “causation” and just give an example where bothe [1] and [2] occur.

By

Long sentences

Most ?

Don’t know if has example or not or how to give

Must

Claims: Being able to save lives must be very satisfying

I don’t know if I can give an example or if I can’t give an example for must.

Pattern: must

I don’t think it is possible to give an example for must. But we should try to give an example by substituting it with is. To disprove it ofcourse, all you need is one example.

(Being able to save lives)[1] IS (very satisfying)[2]

Claims: [1] MUST be [2].

Subject: [1].

Predicate: must be [2].

Example: I donate 4k $, every year to save one life.

Definition: I don’t think the feeling of satisfaction lasts for a minute even. False.

Checklist: yes; false; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; must; failed

often

It is often not the case that (prisoners who fire fight are learning skills)[1] that will help them get (a job outside)[2].

My answer with and without “often” looks exactly the same. I don’t know how to give an example for often. I can’t try to give an example in the case of “often”, as done below. But what often means is unclear, I think for now I should just skip it and make an example for the claim as a result.

Claims: It is often that [1] will not get [2].

Subject: what [1] will not get.

Predicate: [2].

Example: California law bars those with criminal record from becoming licensed emergency responders.

Definition: checks out. People who put out California fires can’t do it once they are released.

Checklist: yes; true; often; chapter; not-running; none; often; failed

Pattern: often

Jail and prisons often get a cut of the proceeds from phone and video calls

Subject: What Jail and prisons get

Predicate: a cut of the proceeds from the phone and video calls.

Example: “Securus paid Hodgson’s office (Bristol county) $1.7 million in exchange for an exclusive contract to provide phone services to inmates. It paid the sheriff’s office a lump sum of $820,000 to cover 2016 to 2020”

Definition: checks out!

Checklist: yes; true; none; chapter; not-running; none; often; failed;

Pattern: often

adjectives

useful, important, good; “A is adjective”

important

Claims: I have important things to do in life (and hence cannot marry)

Look at the example I gave

Example: I have spent roughly 500 hrs over one year on Concrete thinking and still struggle with ten phrases an hour.

Having trouble with proving something is important

Definition unclear

Long predicate

“There is (no doubting)[0] the force of the arguments)[1] … (the problem)[2] is (a research challenge worthy of the next generation’s best mathematical talent)[3]. (Human civilisation)[4] is (at stake)[5].” – Clive Cookson, Science Editor at the Financial

Claims: [2] is [3].

Subject: [2].

Predicate: is [3].

Example: Solving the AI control problem

Definition: I don’t know what the predicate label is trying to say.

Checklist: yes; neither; definition-unclear ; time; (didn’t give up in time, was trying understand it till the end)

Failure mode: time

Pattern: long predicate maybe? with 2 phrases atleast.

(The amendment abolishing slavery)[1] is (not the one that you want to suddenly include the word “except”)[2].

Claims: [1] is [2].

Subject: [1].

Predicate: [2].

Example: I don’t have any examples

Definition: -

Checklist: not-sure; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; definition-unclear; failed

Pattern: long predicate “not the one that you want to suddenly include…”

important ; ready to do

I see that (my mind)[8] has already been (made up)[9], primarily for the reasons, that (I)[10] have (other important things to focus on)[11] and I am not ready to invest in something that is (going to bring my goal down)[12]. For me it is very important (to make lots of money)[13], and (focus on my career)[14]. What ever I need (to do for that)[15], I am (ready to do)[16].

Claims: For me it is important to [13].

Subject: Money making

Predicate: is important for me

Example: I spend majority of my time working a nine to five job in Netherlands.

Definition: Checks out.

Checklist: yes; true; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; a-is-important; unsure (I am not unsure anymore, this is how far I can go with checking definitions like “important”)

plan: check with an STM (no need to practice)

Claims: For me it is important to [14].

Subject: Focus on Career

Predicate: is important for me.

Example: I spend my free time almost everyday working on either CT or data science, roughly three hours a day after my nine to five job (plus gym).

Definition: Checks out.

Checklist: yes; true; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; a-is-important; unsure; (I am not unsure anymore, this is how far I can go with checking definitions like “important”)

plan: check with an STM (no need to practice)

Claims: What ever is needed for [15], I am [16]

Subject: The things needed for my career

Predicate: I am ready to do.

Example: Plotting my path to the US is needed for my career.

Definition: I have not really spoken to anyone within ASML about opportunities to go to the US. I have heard stories about it. Looks like example doesn’t match the definition.

Checklist: yes; false; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; matching-definition; unsure; time (You need to understand that these are vague predicates I guess)

Pattern: “What is needed for X I am ready to do”

I wont take this seriously. This statement is but an exercise and that is it. I wrote it in the past and whether it is true or not doesn’t make a difference to me.

plan: Skip it.

does not pay

keeping true costs off books

Part of the way (mass incarceration persists in this country)[1] is by (keeping the true costs of it off the books)[2] and we are doing that with (underpaid labor from prisoners themselves)[3], (financially draining families)[4], and (monetizing prisoners being launched into the fucking air)[5].

Claims: [1] is by [2].

Subject: [1].

Predicate: is by [2].

Example: Bold claim! I don’t think it has an example

Definition: -

Checklist: no; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; definition-unclear; failed; because-should-due-to; failed to realize; (by)

Pattern: > 6 words? maybe? I don’t know.

common sense

we have come a long long way from common sense

Subject: What we do.

Predicate: come a long long way from common sense

Example: A prisoner being launched six feet into the sky (convict poker) by way of which he can earn money in 100’s of $ so that he can pay for things related to his case such as a private investigator.

Definition: I think it checks out.

Checklist: yes; neither; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; definition-unclear; failed ; (common sense)

subject predicate split

it is B

“There was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools and she was bused to school everyday, and that little girl was me,” she said. “So, I will tell you: on this subject, (it)[1] cannot be (an intellectual debate among Democrats)[2]. We have to take it seriously. We have to act swiftly.”

Claims: [1] cannot be [2].

Subject: Discussion amongst Democrats

Predicate: cannot be intellectual

Example: Very vague labels and hard to give examples for this

Definition: No idea how to test against the predicate, nor do I have an example.

Checklist: yes; neither; subject-predicate-split; time; failed

pattern: “It cannot be BC DEF”

I have X

Claims: I have [11].

Subject: My important things.

Predicate: need focus.

Example: I have spent roughly 500 hrs over one year on Concrete thinking and still struggle with ten phrases an hour.

Definition: It appears that ten phrases per hour is really slow and that I need to spend more effort on it to improve.

Don’t know if I did CT right here

Checklist: yes; true; none; not-chapter; not-running; none; a-is-important; failed; subject-predicate-split; failed; (“What I have” is the subject); (even if the claim was “My important things need focus”, then the subject is still wrong)

Pattern: “I have X”?

Getting A is B

Claims: Getting married is [12].

Subject: Being Married

Predicate: is [12].

Example: The great Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Graham, Bill Gates, Vishwanath Anand are all married.

Here I should have compared for example what Eliezer is and would have been if he was not married or sumpin in that context. But I didn’t

What it actually should have been:

Subject: What marriage will do to your goals

Predicate: bring it down

Then I would give an example to the subject and not just say “Eliezer or Vishvanath Anand”.

how-to: Getting A is B;

there is X

if (an area already receives plenty of attention)[1], then there will usually already be (people working on the most promising interventions)[2].

I don’t know how the subject and predicate looks without checking…