09-07-2017 14:26 In focus your uncertainity, Eliezer talks about a novice tv reporter who has to come up with excuses in advance for 3 scenarios, but he has limitedd time. How would you go about it, as this is not like school where in you have clear numbers to deal with.

Eleizer doesn’t really get into how to solve the problem with this essay.

Well written, but I guess we don’t have many folk here who object to the concept of subjective probability
-Robin Hanson in the comments

The rationalist virtue of empiricism consists of constantly asking which experiences our beliefs predict—or better yet, prohibit. Do you believe that phlogiston is the cause of fire? Then what do you expect to see happen, because of that? Do you believe that Wulky Wilkinsen is a post-utopian? Then what do you expect to see because of that? No, not “colonial alienation”; what experience will happen to you? Do you believe that if a tree falls in the forest, and no one hears it, it still makes a sound? Then what experience must therefore befall you?

It is even better to ask: what experience must not happen to you? Do you believe that elan vital explains the mysterious aliveness of living beings? Then what does this belief not allow to happen—what would definitely falsify this belief? A null answer means that your belief does not constrain experience; it permits anything to happen to you. It floats.

In Making beliefs pay rent in anticipated experiences Eliezer says:

The two think they have different models of the world, but they have no difference with respect to what they expect will happen to them.

It’s tempting to try to eliminate this mistake class by insisting that the only legitimate kind of belief is an anticipation of sensory experience.

The rationalist virtue of empiricism consists of constantly asking which experiences our beliefs predict—or better yet, prohibit.

Do you believe that if a tree falls in the forest, and no one hears it, it still makes a sound? Then what experience must therefore befall you?

It is even better to ask: what experience must not happen to you? Do you believe that elan vital explains the mysterious aliveness of living beings? Then what does this belief not allow to happen—what would definitely falsify this belief? A null answer means that your belief does not constrain experience; it permits anything to happen to you. It floats.

If you can’t find the difference of anticipation, you’re probably arguing about labels in your belief network—or even worse, floating beliefs, barnacles on your network. If you don’t know what experiences are implied by Wulky Wilkinsen being a post-utopian, you can go on arguing forever. (You can also publish papers forever.)

In “Belief in Belief”

he rationalist virtue of empiricism is supposed to prevent us from this class of mistake. We’re supposed to constantly ask our beliefs which experiences they predict, make them pay rent in anticipation.

12-07-2017 In “No one is exxempt from the laws of ratioanality”

Remember this, when you plead to be excused just this once. We can’t excuse you. It isn’t up to u

13-07-2017 In “The simple truth”

  1. We’ll waste hours looking for a sheep that isn’t there. And if there are sheep in the pastures, but the bucket is empty, then Autrey and I will turn in too early, and we’ll find dead sheep the next morning. So an empty bucket is magical if and only if the pastures are empty -”

“Hold on,” says Autrey. “That sounds like a vacuous tautology to me. Aren’t an empty bucket and empty pastures obviously the same thing?”

“It’s not vacuous,” I say. “Here’s an analogy: The logician Alfred Tarski once said that the assertion ‘Snow is white’ is true if and only if snow is white. If you can understand that, you should be able to see why an empty bucket is magical if and only if the pastures are empty of sheep.”

  1. “Mark, I don’t think you understand the art of bucketcraft,” I say. “It’s not about using pebbles to control sheep. It’s about making sheep control pebbles. In this art, it is not necessary to begin by believing the art will work. Rather, first the art works, then one comes to believe that it works.”

“Or so you believe,” says Mark.

“So I believe,” I reply, “because it happens to be a fact. The correspondence between reality and my beliefs comes from reality controlling my beliefs, not the other way around.”

  1. Mark snorts. “I don’t even know why I bother listening to this obvious nonsense. Whatever you say about this so-called ‘reality’, it is merely another belief. Even your belief that reality precedes your beliefs is a belief. It follows, as a logical inevitability, that reality does not exist; only beliefs exist.”

  2. hold on a second,” says Autrey. “If nothing is true, why should I believe you when you say that nothing is true?”

  3. “It’s not separate,” says Mark. “Look, you’re taking the wrong attitude by treating my statements as hypotheses, and carefully deriving their consequences. You need to think of them as fully general excuses, which I apply when anyone says something I don’t like. It’s not so much a model of how the universe works, as a “Get Out of Jail Free” card. The key is to apply the excuse selectively. When I say that there is no such thing as truth, that applies only to your claim that the magic bucket works whether or not I believe in it. It does not apply to my claim that there is no such thing as truth.”

  4. “But what’s the actual answer?”

In [Intuitions of Utilitariansim][ele_intuitions]

And I say also this to you: That if you set aside your regret for all the spiritual satisfaction you could be having - if you wholeheartedly pursue the Way, without thinking that you are being cheated - if you give yourself over to rationality without holding back, you will find that rationality gives to you in return.

But that part only works if you don’t go around saying to yourself, “It would feel better inside me if only I could be less rational.”

Chimpanzees feel, but they don’t multiply. Should you be sad that you have the opportunity to do better? You cannot attain your full potential if you regard your gift as a burden.