Feedback: DP10 Subject Predicate Valuation

Actual essay

Feedback

Mr. Agent,

Great job on spending 29 hours in a week! I recommend measuring rate of phrases per hour.

I spent quite some time, wondering why I hated kids so much. Not one repulsive example came to my mind

Excellent. A failed scenario.

For example, instead of spending 40000 Euros on your kids, you could use it to save ‘I don’t know how many fucking lives’. Period. Did you know (primary schools)[8] cost (2 to 3k Euros in India)[9]? Why would I unnecessarily- having seen (a lot of parents in my life)[10]- get myself into (this bullshit)[11]. I have (no interest)[12] in (starting a family)[13]. I have (my parents, my brother and a whole lot of friends and cousins)[14]. These many people (are good)[15]. Here me out loud, I am not opposed to the concept of girlfriend, but (marriage)[16], and (making a life long commitment)[17], so that the (girl feels secure with half of your earnings at divorce)[18], Sorry! Not my cup of milk!

…

Claims: I have [14] and that is good enough.

Subject: Having [14].

Predicate: is good enough.

Example: Don’t have an example for it.

“Good enough” could mean that the amount of entertainment and feeling of satisfaction you get from them in your free time is enough for you to not search for something more. If it had been a salt-less plate of biriyani, you would not have said the same.

I see lots of failed scenarios regarding marriage.

(Crime)[0] should (not pay)[1], is (very simple common sense)[2].

Claims: Crime should not pay

Definition: checks out I think!

This is a predicate based on his beliefs about what is right and wrong, not on empirical examples. “Crime does not pay” is a predicate about the world and it would be false if the average crime led to a lot of money without imprisonment. “Crime should not pay” can be skipped for now. (“The Holy B says that crime should not pay” is testable, though.)

Many prisoners prefer to do jobs, instead of having to sit in their cells all day

Subject: What prisoners prefer

Predicate: to do jobs instead of having to sit in their cells all day.

Example: The Firefighter prisoners in the video found working “rewarding”. I don’t have any examples for this

Good job! If you failed here, you can note down this pattern “X prefers A to B”, so that you can focus on it in the future and stop making that mistake. Just like you would focus on two-digit multiplication if that’s where you have failed in the past. For example, “a certain Agent prefers not marrying to marrying or not having kids to having kids”.

“But I don’t have any examples of the case where the aforementioned Agent has kids!” – Ask the people selling this to you for smaller claims that you can test right now, such as “you will like holding a baby” or “changing a diaper ain’t all that bad” or “people don’t get too upset when their kids disobey them”.

Paying prisoners more might help, although that will be very difficult.

Claims: Paying prisoners more might help

Subject: Paying prisoners more

Predicate: might help

Example: No example! Prisoner wage hasn’t increase in many years

Nice. If this took you time, note down the pattern “doing more of X will help” so that you can search for similar scenarios on which to practice.

Not sure if something is a running example (atleast 8/133 claims)

Are you using the same example for the same subject? For example, PG might claim many things about schleps (subject), such as most people don’t take it on and it can be quite valuable. Did you use the same example of Stripe (running example)?

Hard to give example, more time more research needed? (39/133 claims)

Mark the claim as lacking an example. Unless it’s something you care about a lot, you don’t need to spend too much time searching for an example (like the case of prison labor stats).

Overall, I didn’t see you take on Superintelligence, which was the mission. Please work on either that or stuff you feel confused about. Only failures matter (apart from maintenance of existing performance).

Note down patterns of failure, such as “X prefers A to B”. Spend, say, half your time searching for and practicing on examples of those types. You can spend the rest of your practice time on new examples, from which you will hopefully find other patterns of failure.

Best,

STM

Failures

Total claims: 122

Total Failures: ~35 (Wow!)

Failures category 1: patterns 1

Claim made by self with 0 ex: self-claim-with-0-ex

Claims: Kids SUCK

I spent quite some time, wondering why I hated kids so much. Not one repulsive example came to my mind

failures: 6

Failed here by not being able to give examples to my own claims.

Claims about the future without any example: future-with-no-ex

Claims: Human civilization is at stake

failures: 0/6

Do not seem to have failed here. I seem to have spotted the ones which were claims of the future and didn’t have examples.

Claims with because should due-to: because-should-due-to

Claims: Crime should not pay

failures: 5/7 atleast

I seem to have been unsure or have failed in cases where I should not bother with giving examples for now.

Claims with must: must

Claims: Being able to save lives must be very satisfying

I don’t know if I can give an example or if I can’t give an example for must.

failure: 1/1

Often: often

Claims: It is often not the case that prisoners who fire fight are learning skills that will help them get a job outside.

failure: 1/3 atleast

My answer with and without often looks exactly the same. I don’t know how to give an example for often

Failure category 2: patterns 2

Claim with “A is important”

Claims: I have important things to do in life (and hence cannot marry)

Look at the example I gave

Example: I have spent roughly 500 hrs over one year on Concrete thinking and still struggle with ten phrases an hour.

Having trouble with proving something is important

failure: 3/4 atleast

X prefers A to B

Many prisoners prefer to do jobs, instead of having to sit in their cells all day

It took me time to realize that this doesn’t have an example in the video I was watching

failure: 1/1 (time)

Missed the comparison

Claims: Getting married is [12].

Subject: Being Married

Predicate: is [12].

Example: The great Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Graham, Bill Gates, Vishwanath Anand are all married.

Here I should have compared for example what Eliezer is and would have been if he was not married or sumpin in that context. But I didn’t

failure: 2/2 atleast

Missed if

If you really have not a (better thing to do in life)[1] and choose to (“settle down” and marry)[2], good luck bruv.

Claims: It’s a bad idea to [2], because you have not anything [1].

Correct claim: It’s a bad idea to [2], if you do not have [1].

missed if mis-interpreting because

failure: 1/1 atleast

belief

(Crime)[0] should (not pay)[1], is (very simple common sense)[2].

Claims: Crime should not pay is [2].

This has no examples as it is a belief

failure: 1/1 atleast

Cannot identify running

I will factor this in, from the next practice.

Failure category 2: Subject predicate example definition

Claims with example not matching definition

Claims: crime does not pay

Didn’t know how the example would look keeping the definition in mind

failure: 2/3

Claims where the definition was unclear

I have (my parents, my brother and a whole lot of friends and cousins)[14].

Claims: I have [14] and that is good enough.

I didn’t know what good enough could mean.

failure: 6/9 atleast

In addition to failure, it also takes time. Usually when I read these statements, it takes “time” to come to the point where I just give up. I spend time reading the predicate over and over again, and ultimately just give up.

Claims where the subject predicate split is not right

(it)[1] cannot be (an intellectual debate among Democrats)[2]. We have to take it seriously. We have to act swiftly.”

Claims: [1] cannot be [2].

Subject: Discussion amongst Democrats

Predicate: cannot be intellectual

Correct Subject: The solution to the busing problem

Correct Predicate: cannot be an intellectual debate among democrats

failure: 2/2 atleast

Claims where I am unsure if it is an example

(the problem)[2] is (a research challenge worthy of the next generation’s best mathematical talent)[3]

Claims: [2] is [3].

Example: AI control problem

Not sure if this is an example

failure: 1/120 atleast

Claims where I am unsure if it has an example

Claims: crime does not pay

Subject: What crime does.

Predicate: does not pay.

Example: !!

Was unsure if it can have an example. Based on the feedback from an STM, I recognize that it should have an example “it would be false if the average crime led to a lot of money without imprisonment”.

failure: 4/120 atleast

Conclusion

As per the advice of an STM, it would be wise to take up these failures and reduce them for each pattern.

Partial Work Stats

Statistics while identifying failed scenarios

Todo

~~- get numbers in excel sheet~~
- clean up this post and post it    - send mail to stm with follow up plan about tackling the failures    - and apologies to an STM.